Oro y Paz: a race in two halves

February 06, 2018


A new race graces the calendar, and this might well be a very special one: the UCI 2.1 Colombia Oro y Paz, the Gold and Peace race of Colombia. Initially, the announcement of this race was received with some sniggering comments about the somewhat lacklustre organisation of the existing Vuelta a Colombia, but these last weeks the derision has slowly made way for a modest but steady amount of hype, and rightfully so: the inaugural Oro y Paz can boast an impressive line-up and a beautiful route. It's a route split evenly in half to satisfy Colombia's two most impressive export products: three stages for the sprinters, three for the climbers. Let's take a closer look.




Stage 1: Palmira - Palmira - 99.9km, criterium.
The Oro y Paz starts with a criterium-esque race in the centre of Palmira, a town in the south west of Colombia. It's a town known as the agricultural heart of Colombia, and it's the home to several of the biggest cane sugar mills in the country. The race covers nine laps of exactly 11.1 kilometres length, which brings us to a total of just short of a hundred kilometres, which is a lot longer than a criterium, but still on the short side for a regular sprint stage.

The laps are almost flat, and for the largest part, rather straightforward. The peloton leaves from the Estadio Escobar behind Palmira's train station, and make towards one of the main roads of Palmira. Taking an U-turn halfway through the lap, the race then turns back towards the stadium. There's two s-bends to complicate the run in to the finish, so positioning here, especially in the second one, will be crucial.

In terms of favourites, there's no getting around the one surefire winner: international top-sprinter Fernando Gaviria. He's by far the fastest man in the pack, and he's got Iljo Keisse and Max Richeze to lead him out. These men were together in the Vuelta a San Juan last month, and they're a perfect train. The only thing that could stand in his way are lingering effects of his fall in that same Vuelta a San Juan, in which case lead-out man Richeze becomes the next favourite of the sprint field.

Most likely outcome for stage 1


Stage 2: Palmira - Palmira - 183.4km, sprint

Yes, day two again starts and finishes in Palmira. This time however, we're brought outside the town to the countryside of the Valley of Cauca. Almost the whole race takes place over one long, straight highway: going north for a bit to start with, then turning south towards Santander where a small berg will do exactly nothing to break up the peloton before starting back towards Palmira. The finish is rather straightforward again. Point of note is that most of the stage takes place in open fields with little to no protection from the wind. Weather predictions claim that the stronger head winds the riders would have faced if the stage took place last weekend will have almost died down by Wednesday.

The favourites are again Quickstep, but that doesn't mean they will not be challenged: Israel Cycling Academy have got two good sprinters, with home favourite Edwin Avilla  and ostensibly the third best sprinter in the field, Mihkel Raim. San Juan has shown however that the team is still a little bit inexperienced in positioning itself in a sprinting peloton, so they'll have to get all the details right to have a shot at victory. With a much more straightforward finish, they're less likely to present a surprise but also less likely to fall apart.

Most likely outcome of stage 2

Stage 3: Palmira - Buga -163.2km, sprint

One final goodbye from Palmira, one final chance for the sprinters. Another straight run-in, albeit with a wide corner around 1k to go. We end up in Buga, a pilgrimage town, after passing through it earlier in the stage. There's really much more to it, and the sprint should be as straightforward as can be. There's two more sprinters worth mentioning: first is Manzana-Postobon's Molano, who has won stages in the Volta oa Alentejo last year. Manzana Postobon is Colombia's only pro-continental squad and will be more than motivated to perform well on home turf. The other is John Murphy, of Holowesko-Citadel, who won several stages in American 2.HC races in 2017.


It is to be expected




Stage 4: Buga - Alto Boqueron (El Tambo) - 149.5km, mountaintop finish
From stage four on, we can send the sprinters home: It's all about the climbers now. The first of three mountain stages has a gentle run-in to a double climb. At 40k to go, the first climb of the Oro y Paz is the Cerritos. It's eight kilometres long, of which the last three are relatively gentle at around 2%. However, the first five are very tough, mostly because of their irregularity, with ramps up to 10.6%. After this, the road never goes flat, keeping up a tiny gradient all the way until the final climb. El Tambo is the Cerritos on steroids: it averages around 5%, but there are ramps of 12 to 13%. It flattens out for a little bit at the top, but then produces a stunning 16.3% for the final 200m.



Stage 5: Peirera - Salento - 163.7km, mountaintop finish
Stage five is another shark fin profile, this time with a double peak at the end. The first peak is at Cruce Salento, and follows almost 38 km of constant climbing, the last ten of which are quite testing. At 10k from the end, the road dips for a fast descent before starting the final climb. It's three kilometres long, and gets steeper the closer to the finish. The averages are around 7-8%, but according the profile the steepest parts are over 34%.

This mountain will really hurt. The double peak invites early attacks, but the enormously steep final km's will ensure that there will be a gruelling battle over this finish line.



Stage 6: Armenia - Manizales - 184.3, mountaintop finish
If there's anything left in the tank, this stage will be sure to sap that out. Any sprinters still holding on in hopes of bringing the points jersey home, will surely be tempted to just abandon. There's three climbs on the menu, each one building on from the top of the previous one. First up is a reprise for the climbs of stage 4, the Cerritos and Boqueron, but that's not the end of the stage: after Boqueron we face a gradual descent of about 20km, before starting on the final 20km long giant, the Chipre, with a finish at the Torre de Chipre, an observation tower in the middle of Observation Park. The climb has a slightly flatter middle section, but contains ramps of 17 to 20%.




The climbers
Contenders for the climbs and GC are aplenty, with a large part of the Colombian World Tour field showing up:

  • Team Sky brings Egan Bernal and both Henao's
  • Team EF-Drapac bring Rigoberto Uran and young talent Daniel Felipe Martinez
  • Movistar brings Winner Anacona and Dayer in support of Nairo Quintana
  • Joining forces in the Colombian National selection are Jarlinson Pantano, Darwin Atapuma and pro-continental talent Miguel Florez
And finally:

  • Old time cult-hero José Serpa joins continental GW-Shimano for his first return with a professional squad since his retirement in 2015!
There are off course non-Colombian climbers as well, although most of these will most likely work to assist a Colombian team captain, such as Movistar's De la Parte, Sky's Gheoghegan Hart and EF-Drapac's Hugh Carthy. Only Quickstep arrives with a foreign climber as their main cards for the stages where Gaviria will not feature: Julian Alaphilippe will try to steal the victory for France.

In terms of prediction, race form will be of utmost importance. We've seen with Luis Leon Sanchez in the Volta a la Comunitat Valencia that having a few races under your belt can really help your performance. This fact also helps some of the smaller riders, who might be geared to performance for this race, in contrast to world tour riders for whom this is a less important outing. And admit it, who wouldn't want to see Euskadi's Aitor Gonzales take a heroic victory? Top favourites from the list would initially be Nairo Quitana and Rigoberto Uran, but for Quintana this race will be his season's debut while Uran has only raced the national championships. Pantano and Atapuma both have the Vuelta a San Juan in their legs, but it's Sky's Egan Bernal that has shown the most early season form in the Tour Down Under. There he showed he had form and that he could perform as well in the big leagues as he did on continental level. This route, with it's high mountains instead of explosive hills, will suit Bernal even better. Pantano and Henao showed great form during the nationals, so take the second step. Young Daniel Martinez is a favourite of mine, and is due a breakthrough ride. He will be less marked than the other favourites, even though he's in good form, taking second at the time trial nationals. He DNF'ed the road race, but I have not been able to find out how. 

Egan Bernal at the Team Presentation

Favourites:

Sprints:
***** Fernando Gaviria
**** Maximiliano Richeze
*** Mihkel Raim, John Murphy, Edwin Avilla
** Juan Sebastian Molano

GC:
***** Egan Bernal, Nairo Quintana,
**** Rigoberto Uran
*** Jarlinson Pantano, Sergio Henao
** Darwin Atapuma, Julian Alaphilippe, Daniel Martinez.

In summary, I'm very excited about the race. The route feels like a steady built up, with three sprints followed by every tougher mountain stages. The field is high level, and I do not expect the GC to be fully decided until the very last day. 

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