One of the biggest classics that is dwarfed by being smack in the middle of the three northern monuments, the Amstel Gold Race arrives on our doorstep this weekend. Starting from the historical town of Maastricht -which is almost more Walloon in character than Dutch- the race snakes through the hills of southern Limburg, making the Amstel the opening battle in the Ardennes Classics. And, after a few experimental editions in the early 2000s, last year finally saw the introduction of Women's World Tour edition of the ride.





How it happened in 2017
The race's first edition in it's modern incarnation was an exciting ride, with riders not willing to wait for the perfect last chance as so often happens in the men´s race. Lizzie Deignan, Kasia Niewiadoma and Elisa Longo-Borghini escaped on the second to last ascent of the Cauberg, leaving a favourites group behind seemingly unable to effectively chase them down. Several weeks earlier, these exact three riders had divided the podium of the Strade Bianche amongst eachother with the same tactic. Eventually however, the three were caught by Annemiek van Vleuten, who bridged with Anna van der Breggen and Coryn Riviera in her wheel.  It was Van der Breggen who had the most left in the tank, and shortly after bridging she attacked to arrive solo at the finish with a minute's advantage. The sprint for second was won by Van der Breggen's teammate Deignan, while Niewiadoma and Van Vleuten were so close that even the photofinish couldn't seperate them, leaving them to share the third spot on the podium.

The route
The Amstel will start from the city centre of beautiful Maastricht with a loop through the relatively flat and open landscape to the north of town, with the Slingerberg at 9.1km from the start being the only distraction. Once we turn southward however, the riders do not stop hitting bergs. It starts with the Bergseweg (500 meters of 6% at 80km from the finish) before the peloton reaches the steepest climb of the day, the Eyserbosweg at 9%. After this, we're almost halfway and past the Fromberg and the Keutenberg we meet the Cauberg for the first time, which leads into the local circuit that the riders will race three times.


The local circuit is a combination of three climbs: the Cauberg, Bemelerberg and Geulhemmerberg. First on the route - and farthest from the finish - is the Geulhemmerberg. It measures a kilometer long at around 7.9%. Halfway through the circuit is the Bemelerberg at 7% and finally the Cauberg itself. The climb averages, depending on where you place the start and the finish, either 6% or 9%, but what's sure is that it peaks at 12%. After the Cauberg, there's a 1.8 km flat to the finish.



The Riders
So, who are the riders that stand a chance to perform in this edition? Let's start by taking a look at those riders who did well last year, as the parcours hardly changed. Reigning champion Anna van der Breggen is a big favourite. She has ridden a light shedule this year, riding only four races so far. Apart from the local stage race the Healthy Aging Tour, these races have been world tour one-day races. Van der Breggen took both Strade Bianche and the Tour of Flanders with about a minute on the number two, a dominating record. Last year her teammate Lizzie Deignan was runner up, but she will not be competing this year: her pregnancy has put her career on a temporary hold. Another 1-2 on the podium for the team is not out of question though, as world champion Chantal Blaak is showing great form, finishing 5th, 4th and 2nd in a series of world tour one-day races so far this year. Although she can be dropped if the race is too hard, she's got a good sprint if she is with the favourites at the end of a hard race.

Kasia Niewiadoma finished third last year, and her form this year is comparably good. Like Van der Breggen, she has ridden a light schedule, but she has not finished outside the top 10 of a GC or one-day race all year. She is supported by her Canyon-Sram teammate Pauline Ferrand Prevot, and the two of them have the combined strength to disrupt Boels' team plans. On a shared third spot last year was Annemiek van Vleuten. In many races, Van Vleuten's Mitchelton Scott is one of the few teams that can measure up against Boels-Dolmans, but the team's classic's season has been marked with illness. Nevertheless, Van Vleuten herself has finished in respectable top 10 placings in the past weeks, hoping to peak for her home race. It will be a relief for her that trusted lieutenant Amanda Spratt is back from illness, but whereas Spratt might have been a contender in her own right without illness, I don't think that's the case now.

Who else are riders to watch? Ellen van Dijk is a serious threat at any moment, and after a few smaller wins this year is due to win a world tour race soon. Her team is strong, with the likes of Floortje Mackaij and Lucinda Brand in her support. Coryn Rivera was the only sprinter to stay with the top favourites last year, finishing top 10, but her form this year has not been on par, and I do not see her feature prominently in this year's race. Brabantse Pijl winner Maria Bastianelli will not ride the Amstel, but her Alé-Cippolini does bring a serious dark horse to the line. Paladin and Sansebastian have powered plenty of break-aways in a busy racing schedule this far, but it's Janneke Ensing who has already clinched a win in Le Samyn, another hilly classic like the Amstel. In 2017, Ensing won a stage and came fourth in another in the Boels Ladies Tour in the same area. For team Cervelo, Ashley Moolman Pasio is knocking on the door. Her season has been barely longer than Van der Breggen's, but the consistency is staggering; over the course of four classics and four stages in Valencia, she's not  finished out of the top 10 even once. Elisa Longo Borgini will again attack from far: she will need to isolate the other favourites from their teammates to have a chance, and will find natural allies in Moolman and the Canyon Sram ladies.