Tour of Turkey, stage 4: the Queen Stage
October 11, 2018
The day is finally there to show that climbers have more jobs to do in Autumn than just the Italian classics: It's time for Queen Stage of the Tour of Turkey! The Tour of Turkey is unabashedly itself, and that means wide open highways, gradual climbs, chaotic sprints and an all-or-nothing decision forced at the climb at Selcuk. Can the up-and-coming pro-continental climbers take the battle to Diego Ulissi and Alexey Lutsenko? Let's go! Or, as they say in Turkey:
Başla!
Stage 3: Fethiye- Marmaris / 132 km / Hills
Like last year, the escape was caught at the foot of the final climb as the peleton put in a huge pace. The victims started to fall out of the back: Hodeg, Porsev, Theuns, Sanz, Consonni and Pipo Pozzato (Is he here? He is!) were among the sprinters losing touch with the peloton. At the front too, riders tried to lose contact, albeit less succesfully: Alexey Lutsenko and Nicolas Roche attempted to get clear, but when race favourite Diego Ulissi was on their wheel immediately, their attempt was over.
It was going to be a mass sprint after all, and with Hodeg gone, there was one clear favourite: Sam Bennett. The Irishman made it a double, and would've set a record if there hadn't been his own record of four wins in six days last year. Back-up sprinter Richeze managed to prove his worth yet again with a second place, while John Degenkolb indeed profited from the tough race to finish third.
Stage 4: Marmaris - Selcuk / 215 km / Medium Mountain
When I mentioned at the start of this week that I had rewatched last year´s tour to prepare for this year´s Tour of Turkey, there was one stage I watched most intentely: The Queen's Stage to Selcuk. It was a beauty to see! The great news? We're getting the exact same stage again this year! Or, at least, close enough.
We're starting with a tough parcours, including the race's only first category climb up the poetically named "Beautiful Night Pass". It is, as is standard for this race, a long and tough slog over a wide state highway. The main climb averages out at 8%, but there's a nice little kicker of 13% after the top. Beñat Txoperena will have to be on high alert here to defend his KOM jersey if he wants to take it and others will be watching to take points here. After a downhill and a flatter section, we hit a double climb which is sure to determine the final GC. The first, 2km at 5%, and the final, a 4 km climb that gets steeper and steeper near the top. It starts at 7% at 3km to go, while the finishing straight averages over 10% towards the ruins of the pilgrimage site for virigin Mary, the "Meryem Ana Evi". It this final climb, Mount Nightingale, that'll decide the overall.
Last year, we saw the break caught at the penultimate climb, which nevertheless proved decisive for the KOM competition. For the first time in the race, Bora and Trek were pushed aside by a different smooth machine of a World Tour squad: team UAE moved forward like they were team Sky on a sunny day in july, and all others where helpless in their wake. Over their climb, through the valley and up the final climb they set their pace. Leopold König tried an attack at the foot in a shimmer of his pre-injury self, but Przemysław Niemiec was unrelentless. In his wheel, only his leader survived and a select few: Wilier's Colombian duo of Daniel Martinez and Yoder Godoy and Androni's Fausto Masnada. At two kilometer to go, the challengers decided to break Niemiec's pace and attack, until eventually Diego Ulissi went solo and won. Will he do the same?
The Contenders
Diego Ulissi (UAE) will have to be the favourite here, but his victory is less sure than last year. Not only is his competition bigger this time, but the Italian grandmaster is not on the same form he was before: a quick comparisson between his preparation in 2017 and 2018 shows that last year, he's had a much better form. The Italian classics were already over, and Ulissi (like his competitors) could profit from the peak timed for those races.
Alexey Lutsenko (AST) might be Ulissi's most eager challenger. The Kazakh allround talent can climb as well as he can sprint, and has been on relatively good form recently. The past few days he's been spending a lot of energy attempting late attacks which might cost him dearly, but his race shedule for the past month has been a lot lighter than Ulissi's, so who know how much he's got left in the tank?
Nicholas Roche (BMC) doesn't get a lot of chances to go for his own glory, but today's attack shows this race is his one chance in the season.
Nathan Haas (KAT) could very well be a challenger here. He was second in a Tour de Suisse stage in front of Ulissi, and fifth on Green Mountain in the Tour of Oman where Lutsenko was second. He's got the punch to drop rivals, but he'll have to make sure not to be dropped before he gets the chance.
Eduard Prades (EUS) or Fernando Barcelo (EUS) . Barcelo might be the only rider whom I could see winning today's stage but not the GC. He's lost plenty of time but is a great climber who could surprise today.
Valerio Conti (UAE) is another outsider. The younger climber on Ulissi's team will likely have to ride his guts out for his captain, but if he'd get free reign he'd be able to surprise a lot of people. He hasn't raced since the Vuelta, so he's a real dark horse.
Alexey Lutsenko (AST) might be Ulissi's most eager challenger. The Kazakh allround talent can climb as well as he can sprint, and has been on relatively good form recently. The past few days he's been spending a lot of energy attempting late attacks which might cost him dearly, but his race shedule for the past month has been a lot lighter than Ulissi's, so who know how much he's got left in the tank?
Nicholas Roche (BMC) doesn't get a lot of chances to go for his own glory, but today's attack shows this race is his one chance in the season.
Nathan Haas (KAT) could very well be a challenger here. He was second in a Tour de Suisse stage in front of Ulissi, and fifth on Green Mountain in the Tour of Oman where Lutsenko was second. He's got the punch to drop rivals, but he'll have to make sure not to be dropped before he gets the chance.
Eduard Prades (EUS) or Fernando Barcelo (EUS) . Barcelo might be the only rider whom I could see winning today's stage but not the GC. He's lost plenty of time but is a great climber who could surprise today.
Valerio Conti (UAE) is another outsider. The younger climber on Ulissi's team will likely have to ride his guts out for his captain, but if he'd get free reign he'd be able to surprise a lot of people. He hasn't raced since the Vuelta, so he's a real dark horse.
The Stars and Moons:
🌙🌙🌙🌙🌙 Diego Ulissi, Alexey Lustenko🌙🌙🌙🌙 Roche, Haas,
🌙🌙🌙 Prades, Conti, Barcelo, Reyes
🌙🌙 Grmay, Bookwalter, Antunes, Stybar, Duarte
Prediction:
Ulissi, Lutsenko? Lutsenko, Ulissi? Ulissi? Roche? Or Lutsenko? It's too close to call. You know what: after seeing last year´s recordings, I can only remember one rider on that final climb: Niemiec. I'm calling it, the Polish rider is riding his last race before retirement, and he's just going to keep bulldozering the road to the shrine on top, forgetting he's supposed to set something up for his team leader, and cross the finish line in prime position. Ulissi can take the GC by finishing second.
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