The Herald Sun Tour starts of with a stage from Healesville back to Healesville. It's a lumpy stage with two main hills in it, the last one quite a bit away from the finish. The fist hill at Old Warburton Road is almost five kilometre long with an average gradient over 4.5%. The actual gradients are a bit higher than that, as the average is pulled down a bit by a slight descent cutting the climb in two halves. The steepest parts of both parts are about 10%. The real challenge is the Myers Creek climb. It's length of seven and a half  kilometres starts of with a thrilling carousel of gentle (1-4%) stretches and ramps of up to 11%, while the latter half of the climb is a more steady slope of 6 to 8%. This hill is surely enough the blow the pack into dozens of groups. The devil is in what happens after the summit: It's a long 20km to the finish, but most of it is a continuous descent.

Although this is the inaugural women's race, the stage itself is not new: almost exactly the same stage opened the men's edition in 2016. Back then, Team Sky opened the attack early in the climb, and although Chris Froome and Peter Kennaugh only managed to crest the hill with about 20 seconds advantage on the chasers, they managed to hold on to that advantage all the way to the finish line. All in all, the route is rather similar to Rio's Olympic route. Alas, both the route towards as the climb itself are slightly -and I do mean slightly- easier than Rio's, making it less obvious for the climbers to get enough time to the top to make it to the finish line.

If someone is to arrive solo, they'll have to have both climbing and TT prowess to make it to the finish line. Katrin Garfoot, who rides with another incarnation of the Australian National Selection, fits the profile perfectly. Rio's rising star Annemiek van Vleuten (Mitchelton-SCOTT) is also at the line, and will definitely make an attempt to make it work. An outsider could be Linda Villumsen (Virtu Cycling), but she would have to start the Myers Creek climb with a head start on the peloton, as she won't out climb the others.  If the pack remains or comes together after the climb, it pays to look at the recent Cadel Evans Ocean Race. The top three of that race, which ended in a mass sprint after a hard race, are all on the startlist: Chloe Hosking (Alé Cipollini), Gracie Elvin (Mitchelton) and Giorgia Bronzini (Cyclance) are all dangerous contenders for a sprint.


Stage two is this ultra-short individual time trial. It's only 1.6 kilometre long, and it's right in Melbourne's city centre. There's no denivelation to speak of, although there are some technical corners in the middle of the parcours, where the riders take to an asphalted footpath through the park instead of the road going alongside it. With this length, the sprinters will compete with the specialists against the clock, especially considering the straight final.

Undoubtedly, this stage is a beauty for Australian fans visiting to watch the race at the side of the road. Sportively, it can often be an interesting change of pace to see sprinters and time trialists pitted against each other, but as a second stage in a two-day stage race it feels rather minimal. I'm not sure if the time differences here can offset potential time differences on day one, although yet again, day one is not unlikely to end with a substantial lead group crossing the finish line at the same time either.

The most recent time trial of similar distance was the prologue of the 2017 BeNeLadies Tour, which at 1.9km was about three hundred metre longer. Indeed, the sprinters and specialists were both in the mix, with those proficient in both topping the leaderboard. The difference between the winner and number 100 was only 24 seconds. The winner was none other than Annette Edmondson, and she's my clear favourite for this stage; there is very few in contention. She would also be a favourite if stage one ended in a sprint, havinng already sprinted to victory in the first stage of the Tour Down Under, but of the sprinters, she will have the hardest time getting over Myers Creek. If the time trial was a bit longer, Annemiek van Vleuten would be a favourite without doubt. She has won short TT's in the past, a 2.2km in 2015 and 2.8km in 2016, but since then she's transformed into a climber and, as evidenced by the Cadel Ocean Race, she is saving herself to peak later.

Prediction

For stage one, I'm gambling on Giorgia Bronzini to finally take a win after several podiums in the Australian summer. Day two will go to Annette Edmondson, but if she loses time on stage one, the overall will go to someone who can perform well on both days, and that will be Katrin Garfoot, to end her road career -which will come to a final race in the Commonwealth Games- on a high. 

★★★★★ Garfoot, Van Vleuten, Edmondson 

★★★ Elvin, Bronzini, Hosking

★ Villumsen