As the cycling world is focussed on Italy, we turn our attention to the other side of the mediterranean: The Tour of Turkey! The Tour of Turkey is unabashedly itself, and that means wide open highways, gradual climbs, chaotic sprints and pro-contintal climbers taking the fight to a World Tour podium on the almost iconic climb at Selcuk. Today was another battle between the best sprinter versus the best train, and this time the sprinter won. How it happened?  Let's see! Or, as they say in Turkey: 

Başla!

If this stage looks familiar to you, then welcome! You must have seen the 2017 edition of the Tour of Turkey! The ToT is not averse to recycling stages that work, and why not? We're in for a bumpy stage, starting off with two short ramps of over 7% before starting the only categorized climb, five k's at an average of 6%. What's interesting is that all of the ramps today have very gradual increase in gradient: starting off easily before reaching the tough gradients near the top! Beñat Txoperena is guaranteed to keep his KOM jersey another day.

The intermezzo is a bit gentler as we get closer to the city of Marmaris. On the city outskirts, the riders have to crest two 'bergs' that could, theoretically, disrupt the peloton's order: the first 2.3km, the second 3km, both about 6.7% average with a max gradient of around 8% near the top. After the downhill, it's only five km's to the finish line. As a bonus: after the last bend, the headwind changes into a usefull breeze from behind: just what a solo escapee needs.

Last year, the stage was somewhat of a dummy: the last escapee was caught on the bottom slope of the final berg, and no riders were given room to escape as all sprinter teams set a furious pace. Sam Bennett managed to take the win there, in a mass sprint. Will it be different in 2018? Perhaps. There are even more spinters teams with a motive to keep everything together than last year, but the procontinental squads will surely send their riders on attack after attack if they smell the tiniest of chance on the final climb. They might have an unexpected ally: Alvaro Hodeg's finish interview hinted at the spinter's dream team pur sang allowing the more capable climbers of the team a go at a solo victory. 

Sam Bennett (BOH) is there again. He won this last year, he can win it today. If the pack stays together, he's the favorite for a double, and he's very motivated to win. His teammate Jay McCarthy would've been great for today, if only he hadn't been in Sam Bennett's team.

John Degenkolb (TSF) had a more invisible day today than yesterday, but managed a far better placing. He's able to survive a classic's style berg better than some sprinters, so might be up there in the finale today.

Simone Consonni (UAE) has been moving up these past few days: sixth on stage one, third on stage two. The logical next step would be first, wouldn't it? The young Italian already was third on this stage last year, so he'll share Bennett's knowledge of the terrain.

Zdenek Stybar. (QST) I'm not really sure which 'climbers' Alvaro Hodeg thinks he has in his team, but Stybar is definitely the classic's specialist. If anyone can pull off a move, it will be this guy.

Alexey Lutsenko (AST) already tried a late move today, so he seems very eager to prove a point in his champion's jersey. Some have gotten him down as a favourite for the overall, in which case he might be tempted to take an early lead over his better climbing competitors.

Ivan Garcia (BAH) is a rider who could go two ways today: he's been doing great in the sprints, but we remember him best from his long solo rides in the Vuelta. He is a rider who could follow attacks and still have the energy left to sprint if everything comes together.

Fernando Barcelo (EUS) and Diego Rubio (BUR) are two surprise attackers who might put in a desperate dig on the final climb too. Both placed well on the Prueba Villafranca, which also ended on a flat after a descent. 

My head is saying mass sprint, my heart is saying no.  I think we will be chasing a break over the top of the final climb, and I think the stronger the rider in front, the more likely the pack is to get them back. If a strong rouleur gets space whose name is just small enough, the pack might miscalculate though. The best one I can think of is the tallest guy of this race, Vegard Stake Laengen. The Norse rider will finish what he couldn´t in Innsbruck, with Bennett, Consonni and Garcia Cortina behind him.