Contents:
Recap
The Course
The Teams
Race Prediction
Favourites

Did you enjoy these past few days? I sure did! The World Championships are in full swing now, and the past fews days have been thrilling. The Netherlands have walked away with three elite gold medals -three and a half, depending on who you ask- and each and every one of them was very exciting. Here's a quick recap of how it happened:

Recap:
Team Sunweb took the double in the TTT's, kick starting an enormously successfull championships to crown their already successful year. On Sunday morning, the women's trade teams started on the course. With only 9 teams starting, the clear favourites were Boels and Canyon-Sram, both former champions. It seemed Cervelo-Bigla and Sunweb were destined to fight for the bronze, while recently renamed Team Virtu was the dark horse, with two former individual champions, so they warranted a good look. Unfortunately the team lost Amber Neben to a mechanical early on, while Linda Villumsen was too strong for her team and accidentally dropped her teammates on Salmon Hill. Ellen van Dijk, who was part of the winning Boels squad for years, put her engine to the service of her new team, Sunweb, and pulled her team all the way to the finishing line in a winning time.

Team Sunweb getting turning onto the cobbled section near the Floibanen (cable-car) station in Bergen city-centre

In the men's field, there was another 'dark horse' contender to watch. In fact, there had been so much attention on this dark horse, that Team Sky started the race as almost a favourite. A team of strong riders who almost all combined climbing, cobble stone ánd time trial skills, they were a team with high hopes. Young Owain Doull dropped first, which was expected, but when Geraint Thomas had to drop on Salmon Hill unexpectedly, Sky's hopes were dashed rather quickly, especially when Gianni Moscon's big engine had trouble holding on. It seemed like eternal contenders BMC and Quickstep were going to dig it out for the win, but Sunweb went home with the price, with one of the youngest teams in the field.

Women's Time Trial
I did a preview of the time trial here, and I'm glad to say I wasn't too far off. With the favourites spread out evenly across the starting list, this was a race that was tense and exciting all the way through. Although I've never felt so sure of a prediction as I have when predicting Van Vleuten's win, for a long time it looked like it would be a close race: it had started raining, and until the third split Van Vleuten had been behind and losing time on Van der Breggen. I was glad to see Katrin Garfoot complete the podium. She's had a stellar start to her season but then had to deal with a lot of sickness. The podium was a delightful double-double: a double the Dutch, who got Gold and Silver, and a double for Orica-SCOTT who came home with their first ever rainbow jersey and a bronze medal in addition! Shout-out to Sarah Connolly (@PWCycling) for commenting the race and delighting us with a lot of backstory on the riders!

Men's Time Trial
Unlike the Women's Time Trial, the Men's TT had almost all of the favourites in the last group of starters. It finished on Mount Floyen, the heaviest of the climbs we'll see this championship, and mountain time trialists were expected to carry the day. A late spell of rain threatened to change the day's script, but in the end the day's favourite won -by a mile-. He almost caught his scripted challenger, Chris Froome, in what was a huge ride. Dumoulin did not take the announced bike change, but Slovenian Primoz Roglic did, which resulted in him climbing up the hill in record time and conquering the silver medal.

Course:
All road races take place on the same circuit: although the men will start with a 40 kilometre course before the circuit, all the action is likely to take place in the 19.1 kilometre criss-crossing Bergen. There's a categorised hill on this circuit, Salmon Hill, although it's the weakest of the three named hills we get this championship: the Women's TT took the Birkelundsbakken, which clocked in at an average of 7.2% over 1.4 km, while the Men's TT finished on Mount Floyen, which had an average gradient of 9% over almost three and a half km. The road race however will take Salmon Hill, which was also part of the team time trials.

Salmon Hill, a path going up Mount Ulriken, is a one and a half kilometre hill with an average gradient of 6.4%. Compared to the other two hills this sounds a lot smaller, but during the TTT it showed looks can deceive, and a lot of teams were torn apart on this biter. The first part is the steepest, at almost 8%, but looking at the video's of the TTT, the top bend has got a good final kick to it. On the way to Salmon hill, the riders already have to deal with some gradients: two bergs of 5% colour the route at the 2km and 4km mark respectively. After Salmon hill, it's still nine kilometre to the finish line, most of it a lot flatter than the first 10km: by no means does this guarantee a bunched finish though: not only will the peloton have too many strong teams invested in making this race hard, but although lacking real height differences, these final 10km are never completely flat and dotted with cobbled sections, for example near the lower Floibanen cable-car station. It was in this part that Team Sky's Gianni Moscon struggled very hard during the TTT. The main challenge is in the repetition: although the climb probably won't be enough to grant an attacking climber a solo victory -although, you never know - the fact that the peloton will take it 8 times is likely to cause trouble for the sprint specialists.

Thomas Pidcock on a cobbled section

Contenders
As all World Championship races apart from the TTT go, the race is ridden by national teams. For readability, I've sorted the nations I want to discuss here in three categories based on the strategy I expect from them: likely to work for a sprint finish, likely to work for a selective, hard race and teams that could make it work either way.

Sprinter's teams:

-Denmark and Finland
These Scandinavian nations boast two of the strongest sprinters in the field. Finland's Lotta Lepistö was one of the sprint sensations of 2016, placing 2nd on La Course and 3rd on the World Championships in the flat route of Qatar. This year she's had a tremendous spring, winning Gent-Wevelgem and Dwars door Vlaanderen, two Belgian spring classics. Although she went head-to-head with other sprinters there, these two races show she's more than able to digest a few bergs. Repeating this feature in last month's Crescent Vargarda shows that's she still in form this late in season.

Denmark's Amelie Dideriksen is the reigning world champion and world class sprinter. Her most recent victories are in early spring, though she managed to sprint to a 5th place from the peloton in the European Championships, after Marianne Vos had escaped to take the win. Denmark has got a strong team to support Dideriksen, with the likes of Cecile Uttrup Ludwig and young super talent Pernille Mathiesen in her support, the last of these being Denmarks best hope if the race doesn't end in an sprint.




-Belgium
Belgium arrives to the scene with Jolien D'Hoore as their clear leader. This sprinter's season is dotted with victories throughout the year, including stages at the Women's Tour of Britain and the Giro Rosa. Last month she won the Madrid Challenge, which is La Vuelta's equivalent of the traditional La Course. D'Hoore has got a strong team with her, with rouleurs as Ann-Sophie Duyck and Lotte Kopecky in her service, but I think Salmon hill might be just too much for her.

Puncher teams:

-The Netherlands
The largest squad of the race, with 8 riders, is stocked with talent. Both silver and gold medallists in the time trial are Dutch and are top favourites for the road race again, provided a mass sprint can be avoided. Annemiek van Vleuten en Anna van der Breggen have both had great successes in gruelling stage ánd one-day races. Van der Breggen won the triple crown of the Ardennes week, while Van Vleuten won the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race and top 5-ed in all three Ardennes classics. Although Van der Breggen is more successful in one-day races, arriving solo in many of her wins, Van Vleuten was a classics rider before the discovered the huge climbing talent she displayed this year, and might just be able to push out a stronger sprint if she arrives with a small group. In the recent Boels Ladies Tour, the two arrived as a duo at the finishing line of the 5th stage, leaving all other contenders far behind. Van der Breggen took the win there while Van Vleuten secured her GC. I can almost see the two replicating this and tuesday's feat for the road race. It would do the team an injustice if we didn't mention the rest of the team: With Blaak, Brand, Van Dijk, Pietersen and Ensink, each rider of the team is a powerhouse. We can expect a ruthless tactic of never ceasing attacks from all these riders, before the two team leaders attack, each functioning as the other's foil. Road captain is the indomitable Marianne Vos, women's cycling's living legend, capable of attacks and sprints both. Kirsten Wild, the Dutch best sprinter, is only on the reserve list, so if the race ends up a bunch sprint despite the Dutch's best efforts, we might just see Vos in the rainbow jersey once more.

-Australia
Controversy surrounded the selection for this nation's worlds squad: the Australian women have performed well all around the year, and were rewarded with seven spots. However, in a shocking decision that was no doubt motivated by a blatantly sexist disregard for the sport, Australian Cycling chose to send only five riders. Sprinter Chloe Hosking challenged the decision and won a spot on the team for herself and rouleur Neylan. Nevertheless, I expect the Australian squad to stick to the same tactic they would've committed to with their original selection: one of opportunism and attacks. Although lacking the breadth of the Dutch team, the Australians have several talented options. Kartin Garfoot won the bronze in the time trial, but I think Amanda Spratt has got an even bigger chance. The two dominated the Australian pre-season, placing first and second in races with a sort-of-similar parcours to this championships, such as their own national championships and stages in the Santos Tour Down Under.  Balancing a very powerful sprint with the ability to survive a selective race is Gracy Elvin.

Gracie Elvin at the recent Boels Ladies Tour

-South Africa
Asleigh Moolman-Pasio is a great athlete who fights for women's cycling both on and off the bike. She's here without a team to support her, which is fine, as she needs a decimated field to stand a chance at winning here. She's had a great season, riding top 10's in the classics and winning the Emakumeen XXX. Bira and recently the Giro Toscana. In the Emakumeen Bira she won the final stage, with a finish somewhat similar to the world's: a hill of roughly 5% at 10k from the finish. The repetition of Salmon hill throughout the course can only serve to tire out her opponents.

-France
Although she's been through some hard times, Pauline Ferrand Prevot is never to be discounted. She's been showing signs of regaining form and has claimed that she's regained joy in the sport. If she manages to reach the finish with a small group of favourites, she can outsprint them all.

Teams that can go either way:

-United States and United Kingdom
Both these countries are blessed with great sprinters and great punchers. With Coryn Rivera, the US has got arguably the most exciting sprinter of the season. She's won the Tour of Flanders and the Prudential Ride, and she's got it in her to survive a hard race. On the other hand, the team has got Megan Guarnier, a strong GC rider whose form has been picking up all through the season. Across the ocean, the British have got Hanna Barnes who has outsprinted Marianne Vos on home soil this year, but they've also got Lizzie Deignan. If her 2017 seasons looks underwhelming, that's only because the controversial puncher has had such successful seasons before. Of these two nations, I think the US will tend to favour a sprint-focused approach with Rivera, although they won't mind dropping some of the competition, while the UK will have Deignan as their primary contender.

-Italy
With Georgia Bronzini and Elisa Longo-Borghini the Italians have got the ability to go both tactics. Bronzini might not be the strongest sprinter in the field, but she's got a great lead-out in the person of Elena Cecchini, who's capable of sprinting for a good placing for herself too if push comes to shove.  Elisa Longo Borghini is a force to be reckoned with, who won this year's Strade Bianchi and finished second in the Giro.

Will Hannah Barnes, Georgia Bronzini and Coryn Rivera play second fiddle to their team's punchers?

Predictions

Now, for the hardest part: to predict what actually will happen. I'll admit that there's more teams here who will want to race for a sprint than I initially thought. However, the teams that will try to avoid  a bunch sprint , such as the Dutch, the Australians and possibly the Italians and Americans have more strength and depth. Only Denmark will commit fully to bringing about the bunch sprint, again possibly with American support. I think it's likely that the race will mimic the early season classics, with a significantly reduced bunch before the final two laps, and a top 10 combining sprinters and punchers in unexpected order. I think some sprinters will definitely make it into that bunch. From that moment on, their will be no end to the Dutch attacks. If they're still there, South Africa's Moolman and Australia's Spratt will surely try to attack in the last lap, as will Longo Borghini.  My guess is that Annemiek van Vleuten will tag along with one of these attacks, and conquer the double rainbow with Rivera winning the bronze from the bunch seconds later.

1. Annemiek van Vleuten
2. Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio
3. Coryn Rivera

Stars:
***** Annemiek van Vleuten, Coryn Rivera, Anna van der Breggen
**** Lizzie Deignan, Lotta Lepistö, Megan Guarnier
*** Amanda Spratt, Ashleigh Moolman, Marianne Vos, Amelie Dideriksen, Georgia Bronzini, Hannah Barnes
** Chloe Hosking, Katrin Garfoot, Jolien D'Hoore, Elisa Longo-Borgini, Gracy Elvin