2018

Teams of 18 (4): Tel-Aviv cool with Israel Cycling Academy

December 15, 2017

Israel Cycling Academy

They drew quite the attention when they arrived on Belgian shores this spring: Israel Cycling Academy had their first season as a procontinental squad last year, but next year might even be bigger. In preparation of their most high-profile season yet, the team's transfer season has been on fire. Let's take some time to look at it in this fourth (1 , 2 , 3) instalment of "Teams of '18".

2018

Teams of 18: the Irish band of Aqua Blue Sport

December 03, 2017


After a stellar first year, the innovative Irishmen of Aqua Blue Sport are ready for their second year in existence. 2017 saw the team enliven every breakaway in the early season, take wins in the US and in Switzerland, and finally participate and gain a stage victory in the Vuelta d'Espagna. Unlike Murias-Euskaltel, this started as a procontinental team and will continue on that level, so the fluctuations in line-up are more subtle, yet still worth taking a look at.

2018

Teams of 2018: the triplet of Orica

November 26, 2017


In this second post in my teams of 2018 series, we'll take a leap from a new pro-continental team to a collective of teams operating at the highest echelons of their respective levels: the three teams of the Greenedge family: both Orica-Scott's and U23 squad Mitchelton-Scott.

Mitchelton-Scott is Orica's feeder team for the male squad, and they've been pretty successful. The continental season in Asia is still going on as we speak, so their most recent victory is about week old, when Jai Hindley took a stage and GC in the Tour of Fuzhou. Their proudest moment probably must have been the Baby Giro, where the team took both the second and third place in the general classification, in addition to two stage victories and a slew of podium spots.

Lucas Hamilton, Mitchelton Scott
Lucas Hamilton celebrating with two teammates just behind him
As a feeder team, losing your biggest talents is not a problem: the question is where they're going. Team star Lucas Hamilton will join the big league with Orica Scott. Hamilton was second in the Giro and won the Tour d'Alsace and the Oceanic Continental Championship. He's a great time-trialist, with a lot of potential. Two other super talents likewise make the step up to the world tour, but they're scooped up by different squad than the parent outfit. Whether it's the connections that Bling Matthews has laid down, Jay Hindley and Michael Storer turn to Team Sunweb. With Hindley a huge GC talent and Storer an aggressive attacker, these are sore losses for the Greenedge school. 29-year old Cameron Meyer was a stagiair with the youth outfit for a short while as part of his return to road cycling after his temporary departure for personal reasons. From January, he will rejoin his old team of Orica-Scott.


According to procyclingstats, all Chinese riders will leave the team as well. None of these riders provided the team with important results, but the problematic effect of this exodus is that Mitchelton-Scott is now left with only two riders from 2017: Harry Sweeny and U23 champion Samuel Jenner. I wonder what this exodus, if it really comes to fruition, will mean for the team's licence, which is currently registered in China. The team has only announced two new riders so far, but they're certainly interesting: the first is Jacob Hennesy, who rode for British Cycling's academy this year. The start of his season was amazing, winning the U23 Gent Wevelgem, leaving the likes of Neilson Powless and Eddie Dunbar behind him. The other one is one that you may have seen: Brayan Chaves, younger brother to superstar Esteban will join the team. As big of a smile as his famous brother, Brayan has been mostly riding national and South American races with the Colombian EPM team so far. According to the DS, he shows the climbing talent you'd expect from the family, but the team will expose Brayan to as many different race situations as possible, to see where his talent might flourish best. 

Annemiek van Vleuten on the Izoard for Orica Scott 2018

Orica Scott's Women's team has had a stellar year. Annemiek Van Vleuten was a sensation throughout the cycling world, and her win on the Izoard and in Bergen's ITT were sovereign. With this, she's become the first world champion that Orica had ever had. Add to that her podium and stage victories in the Giro Rosa and good placings all through the year, and it's easy to understand how she ended up on the second place of the UCI Women's World Ranking. She has signed for the Australian squad for at least two more years, and I'm willing to bet she will be a prime contender for the Giro Rosa. Adjudant Amanda Spratt, who placed 5th in the Giro, will also be staying with the team. 

A mayor loss for the team is Katrin Garfoot. The German-born Australian struggled with ilness during much of the season, yet nevertheless managed to bookend the season with great results in the early pre-season and two medals in Bergen. She had previously announced that she would retire after the Commonwealth Games held in Australia in April, but most expected her to stay with Orica up until that point. Opting out of traveling to Europe, Garfoot will attempt to race the Australian summer races with the national squad instead. Garfoot is not the only one leaving Orica: Rachel Neylan moves to the new Movistar team, while Loren Rowney retired in early January this year. Rowney will return to professional cycling in 2018 though, as trainer and coach with Britain-based Drops Cycling. After Emma Johansson, it seems Orica still has trouble holding on to retiring riders with staff-ambitions.  

Jolien d'Hoore celebrating move to Orica


Orica has managed to snare one of the women's peloton's biggest transfers: top-sprinter Jolien d'Hoore will transfer to the outfit. d'Hoore won stages and single day races all through the season, culminating in the Madrid Challenge. In the past year, Orica was lacking top sprinters, but Sarah Roy and especially Gracy Elvin were developing serious results. They will now most likely end up in d'Hoore's train, although Elvin will probably be able to go for personal success in some of the cobbled classics. Initially, I admit I was a bit saddened by this, thinking Orica would've done better by developing their own talent. Then again, some say the best education for a sprinter is in the train of a better sprinter, so I think this match might work out very well.

Simon Gerrans waving goodbye to Orica Scott in 2018
Simon Gerrans waving off
Finally, it's time for Orica Scott's men's World Tour team. Although the core of the team will remain largely the same as in 2017, the team will see some serious changes, including the departure of one of their very core members. When the Greenedge family just entered the scene, Michael Matthews and Simon Gerrans were their main attractions: opportunistic sprinters who could hold their own on rugged terrain and through chaotic finishes to outmanoeuvre the pure sprinters. Bling left the nest last year for a new role as pure sprinter with Team Sunweb, this year Simon Gerrans is leaving. Gerrans hasn't been raking in the wins like he used to do for a long while -although his honours list is still impressively filled with second and third placings-, but he seemed to fill an irreplaceable role as road captain. You would be forgiven for thinking he would fulfil this role until his retirement, but not so: after rumours linking him to Astana, Gerrans moves to BMC for the 2018 season, with the aim of supporting friend & fellow Australian Richie Porte as well as Rohan Dennis and Scotson Miles.

The team's classics squad also takes some heavy losses: although reports had Jens Keukeleire sign up for some extra years, in the end the Belgian decided to turn to home team Lotto-Soudal, who sorely missed success in this year's classics. Supporting classics riders and occasional sprinters Magnus Cort and Mitch Docker also leave for new horizons. With Ruben Plaza the team loses one of their most reliable mountain helpers, while King Lok Cheung, who didn't ride a race outside of Asia this year, was in all probability merely a signing to please the sponsor in the first place.

Matteo Trentin to be a sensation for Orica in 2018?
Now, what is the team bringing in in return? The most notable signing is, without doubt, Matteo Trentin. When first rumoured, the transfer came a bit out of the blue, but taking into account the gigantic results the Italian sprinter has brought in since August the transfer is arguably a master bargain for Orica. There's some discussion online on whether Trentin will have to lead out Orica's main sprinter Caleb Ewan or will function as sprinter in his own right. I do think a pairing of Ewan and Trentin is quite likely: not necessarily as a work horse in Ewan's lead-out, but I think Trentin will mentor and teach Ewan in the art of positioning. He will undoubtedly get his own chances too in plenty of races, perhaps even in a grand tour. My hope is he will be allowed to give some of the classics a chance: I have a feeling there's more in it for him than a 9th place at the Omloop. New Zealander Jack Bauer comes along from Trentin's Quickstep.

In exchange for Plaza's mountain support comes almost legendary Mikel Nieve. I admit I had a soft spot for the physical giant Plaza, but Mikel Nieve is more than his match. The Basque was a core helper in Team Sky's last three grand tours, and salvaged the team's grace after their designated leaders faltered in two grand tours before that. He is a powerhouse and will be of great service to the team's young GC riders.

Mikel Nieve is of proven climber's pedigree
In conclusion I suspect that where Orica's women's team has made a great investment in the sprint, the men's team has a more balanced transfer season. Matteo Trentin turned out an unexpected superstar, although one wonders if he can fill the lacuna in the classics section, which now relies mostly on Luke Durbridge, Mathew Hayman and Chris Juul-Jensen, of whom, although admittedly they're all very decent riders, only Juul-Jensen seems to have much further to grow. In the mountains the combined strength of Mikel Nieve, Roman Kreuzinger and the three GC hopefulls of Yates, Yates and Chaves should be able to hold firm. What the team might miss is someone who would fill the roll of road captain in the way that Keukeleire and Gerrans could, especially with the slew of very young Australian talents in the guise of Jack Haig, Damien Howson, Robert Power and now Lucas Hamilton, who have all been touted as the next great Australian stage racer. After an extraordinary 2016 and a 2017 plagued by injury, 2018 is going to be a year of all or nothing for the team.


If you want to see more like this, here's part one: an analysis of Euskadi-Murias. Keep an eye on this page for our next instalment, featuring a squad chosen by popular request on my twitter account.


Images courtesy of Cyclingnews, Greenedge Cycling and Ciclo21.

2018

Teams of 18: Murias Euskadi, the Carrots in Green

November 12, 2017


All things considered, Basque cycling isn't in a bad state. Mikel Landa is poised to become the standard bearer for Spanish Cycling after a year of tremendous form and equal drama. Mikel Nieve and Pelle Bilbao have shown themselves as some of the most reliable luxury doms while many others, such as the brothers Gorka and Ion, continue good form and the likes of Igor Anton and Omar Fraile figuring as rogueish stage hunters. And yet, many yearn back to that orange paragon of Basque cycling: the Euskadi WT team.

Five years after the demise of this fan-favourite, several small teams stand poised to claim their share of that cult status. The most direct link to the old team might be Fundacion Euskadi, who have Mikel Landa himself as official ambassador. Yet it's another team, the commercially sponsored Euskadi-Murias that's staking the highest claim, by announcing a leap to pro-continental level with a guaranteed wild card for La Vuelta. With their green jerseys they might not be reminiscent of the carrot-orange squad that more recent fans, like me, have learned to adore, but the original Euskaltel raced in green-blue-ish jerseys for years. Now, even on continental level the team did not exactly stand out in terms of sportive success. In this blog I hope to analyse whether they'll stand a better chance with their transfers in 2018.

The team during the 2017 Tour du Limousin, with Aitor Gonzales (staying in 2018) wearing the KOM for a day

Murias-Euskadi in 2017
The number of victories for the plucky team unfortunately is down to zero. Their best finish in a GC or stage was third, in the general classification of the GP Beiras e Serra da Estrella, a three-day Portuguese UCI 2.1 race. The team's only podium spot was Beñat Txoperena, who is staying with the team for next year. 

The team's top performers -using PCS points as a metric- are Mikel Bizkarra and Garikoitz Bravo. This last one is also responsible for perhaps their most visible performance: a hard fought 9th place during the opening stage of the 2.hc Vuelta a Burgos, among a packed field of world tour squads including winner Mikel Landa's Team Sky.  Both Bravo and Bizkarra are staying in 2018. Garokoitz Bravo, at 28, is also the team's oldest rider, but that's going to change.

Garikoitz Bravo in the run in to the finish of stage 1 of the 2017 Vuelta a Burgos


Who is leaving the team?
Two riders are going into retirement, while three others are leaving for other shores. Adrian Gonzáles leaves for rival team Burgos-BH who are stepping up to PCT status as well, while former stagiair Rodriguez and Eneko Lizarralde do not have a new squad yet. This means that five riders will not ride for the team in 2018, with ten new signings more than making up for the loss. Interesting detail: most of these five, including the two going into retirement, are among the younger riders of this quite young squad.

Murias-Euskadi have signed one rider from the old Euskaltel WT squad


Who is joining the team?
There's been a slew of new signings, but only one of them comes from the old Euskaltel world tour team, Jon Aberasturi. Nevertheless, the 28 year old still has a way to grow, delivering rather decent results in the past two years for continental team UKYO. In Hainan he was able to outsprint Jakub Mareczko before the latter went on a legendary 5 day winning streak. Aberasturi is a sprinter who can surive a few hills, a recipe we'll see for more off among the new signings. According to their website, the team doesn't see Aberasturi as part of the train, but rather as someone who can sprint to bring the team victories.

Two of the new signings come from Caja Rural, formerly the only Spanish PCT squad. The Basques manage to nick Eduard Prades and Hector Saez. Saez is a young time trialist annex domestique, but Prades might fulfill a bigger role. Like Aberasturi, he can sprint ánd punch. Although taking his best results in sprints, he can match the likes of Alexis Vuillermoz on sharp uphill finishes. It's his versatility that could have made him a dangerous client for the recent Tour of Turkey. I know nothing of his personality, but his combination of versatility and experience would make him a valuable road captain for this squad.

Eduard Prades taking a win for Caja Rural
When Euskadi-Murias announced its rise to pro-continental level, twitter user Fernando Lopez and I immediatly pointed at two names we expected the team to sign. (Truth be said, we also pointed at a lot of other names, hoping for example that Pelle Bilbao would resign his comfortable WT position to ride for the homeland, but I digress.) The names we expected were Mikel Aristi and Enrique Sanz. Aristi is a young rider from Fundacion Euskadi stock, with a descent sprint who can handle a long ride. Enrique Sanz is famous as the nephew of Movistar-manager Unzue's nephew. He spent four years in his uncle's employment before slowly falling down the ranks. This last year, he's been performing surprisingly well in (non-UCI) races in the UK circuit for team Raleigh-GAC. He's likely to become the team's main sprint cannon.

Not the whole team is from Spanish/Basque stock. Cyril Barthe, who was a stagiair last season and turns pro with the team this year, is from French Basque Country. He won two sprint stages in the recent Volta a Portugal do Futuro, a youth race in Portugal. The other is a Frenchman too, and is points-wise the biggest fish joining the shoal: Julien Loubet rode the 2017 season for Equipe Armee de Terre, and managed to win this year's Tour de Finistere in a month in wich his team was on an absolute roll. He seems to be a classics type, able to withstand suffering and endure. He rode for the world tour squad of AG2R in the past, and although he's the oldest rider of the squad at 32, he'll be gunning for more victories.



Conclusion
All in all, the team has grown in strength enormously. Contrary to national stereotypes, the new squad seems rather light on the climbers, and the reinforcements show a real focus on sprints. I suspect that this is partly out of frustration after a season without wins. Perhaps the younger talents brought in or staying over from 2017 show more affinity for the high mountains. Fernando Barceló is one example who might shine in the climbs if properly develloped, but any classification or mountain goals are definitely plans for the long term rather than the short. Throughout the season they'll try to mix into the sprints in the smaller fields, with Loubet hoping to repeat his 2017 season in classic-like rides such as the Tro Bro Leon Euskadi-Murias' season highlight will be the Vuelta d'Espagna, for which they have gotten a guaranteed wildcard. If the sprinter's field would be the same as it was last year, the team might be able to play a role in the sprints there with Sanz. With the World Championships being particularly unsuitable for sprinters though, it's not unlikely that some top sprinters will focus on the Vuelta instead, in which case Euskadi would not be able to match. I think the team knows this, and it's notable that the team in their releases does not assign their fast men to 'lead-out' or "sprinter'' status, so the team will probably race the Vuelta like you would expect from wildcard teams: by animating the breakaway. Loubet, Prades, and Aberasturi they've got great riders who can finish off a successful break, if they can survive the higher mountains.

I wish the team much luck, and they'll need it, but it will be great to see the Basque flag represented on the higher levels again. We'll have to see after this winter. Aupa!



Tour of Turkey

October 06, 2017



It's time for Schrödinger's bike race; the Presidential Tour of Turkey. After a doubtfull few months, in which it seemed uncertain whether the race would take place at all, with barely any race info available, the past week has seen the official twitter account spewing announcement after announcement. By now we've got detailed maps of all stages, a list of participating teams and even preliminary start list. In short, everything we need for a preview.

Dimitar Kotev on his way to win the 1967 edition

About the race
Although recently elevated to World Tour status, the Tour of Turkey has a history going back to 1962, when it was the Sea of Marmara Tour. Since 1966 it's been sponsored by the Presidential Office, and in the last few years it saw a gradual but rapid rise through the UCI ranking. Previous winners include Daryl Impey, Gianni Visconti, Natnael Berhane, Adam Yates, Kritjan Durasek and most recently José Goncalves. Caja Rural dominated this edition of the race, with Pelle Bilbao taking the Queen's stage and the GC lead until he abandoned because of a sickness and handed over the lead to his teammate Goncalves.



This year is it's first appearance on the UCI World Tour, and it's been marked with controversy: originally planned to start in the usual slot in April, it fell victim to a new rule within the UCI World Tour system: in exchange for the big increase in WT races, the WT teams were allowed to skip one or more of the newly addes races. Because of the lack of interest from WT teams in April, the race was delayed until October, unfortunately without much effect: again only four WT teams were willing to participate, a similar number to 1.1 race Veenendaal - Veenendaal. There's a plethora of reasons why a WT team would choose to skip this race. Whereas the April slot clashed with other important races, that can hardly be said to be the case now. Instead the blame falls on the political climate in Turkey. Although I'm not opposed to sportive boycotts in itself -and Turkey's human rights climate would certainly warrant protest- this argument seems a little luke-warm when there's no shortage of races -even World Championships and Grand Tour starts- that take place in countries with similar problems. Nor does a boycott seem serious when it isn't combined with an open statement stating the reason behind it. Lotto-Soudal DS mentions the political trouble, but mostly in relation to rider's safety. In short, although there's reason a plenty for a political boycott, it looks like most teams skip this world tour race for the simple reason that they can get away with it because everyone else does, and the sheer number of UCI World Tour race days is as much to blame as Erdogan's horrible human rights abuses are.



The Jerseys
Like any UCI race, the Tour of Turkey can have four classification jerseys. I have to say, I think the jerseys are beautifully designed. The four classifications are as follows:
Blue: General classification.
White: "Beauties of Turkey" classification: every stage has one marked "Beauties of Turkey" intermediate sprint at presumably a tourist attraction or natural feature. 
Red: Mountain classification, self explanatory. 
Green: Sprint classification. According to their English language website, the sprint classification is based only on intermediate sprints, but I think it's unlikely that sprint finishes won't award points. I'll update if I find out!


The Stages
The Tour of Turkey lasts 6 stages, starting at Alanya the south coast of the country, following the coast westwards up to Izmir before transferring for the final stage in Istanbul. This last stage is the source of the race's boast of being a race on two continents.


Stage 1: Alany-Kemer, 177km, flat
The first stage is one most definitely for sprinters. There is marginal height difference, although there is a 4th category hill along the route to motivate the break of the day, as the one who takes this is guaranteed the red jersey for a day. Another jersey for the the break is the Beauties of Turkey sprint, which is situated near the Antalya Expo Center after 110km. The finish is a long, straight stretch of flat without any corners. There are some bricked parts, but the road is so straight that they shouldn't pose a problem. Stage for a pure sprinter, unless the wind ruins it for them: streetview suggests it's not as exposed to the coast as I thought, but nevertheless there's plenty of stretches where with a good wind echelons might form. 


Last year's stage with practically the same route was won in a bunch sprint by Jakub Mareczko. Note the paving that's typifying for several finish towns to come.


Stage 2: Kumuca - Fethiye, 206km, flat finish
This stage has got a bumpier profile than the previous one, starting off flatly towards the Beauties sprint before climbing to a 2nd category climb after 60km. Like the previous stage, and most stages to come, most of the route follows a long, wide provincial highway, and this includes the climb. The climb reaches percentages of 8% and tops of just before the village of Davazlar. The final stretch is again reasonably straightforward, with one 90* corner at roughly 600m to go. There's more coastal winds, but other than that the peloton should be able to bring the sprinters to the front of the race in the second half of the stage.

The wide, climbing highways on which most of this race takes place. En route to Marmaris in 2016



Stage 3: Fethiye - Marmaris, 128km, hills
Leaving from the finish town of the previous stage is the shortest stage of the Tour of Turkey. It's got a second category climb at the Göcek pass after 30km, which although half the height of the one on the previous day has got a similar gradient. There's another rather similar climb at the end of the stage. Although it's not categorised, it's got gradients of 8% and its top is only 8km from the finish. The organiser expects a sprint finish, but does this hill offer a chance for an opportunistic attacker? This stage is the first one that doesn't end with a long stretch of coast, and the final 5km include enough bends and corners for an attacker to get out of view of a chasing peloton. We've seen ultra-short mountain stages in grand tours, but what does this distance do to a hilly stage?



Stage 4: Marmaris - Selçuk, 204.1km, mountain top finish
If this race has a queen's stage, this stage is it. Keeping up with tradition, it starts in yesterday's finish town. Before the race reaches the finish at the Virgin Mary Nature Park, there's a lot that the race has to get through first. To start, the stage takes the race's only 1st category mountain. In a stage filled with poetic place names, this pass takes it's all: it goes for nothing less than "Beautiful Night Pass".



Above is a google streetview look from what's actually near the bottom of the climb. The main climb is around 8 to 10%, but there's gradient up to around 13% after the official top. Afterwards, the pack descends until there's two kickers near the finish: first there's a small hill of around 5% with a steep descent before the pack hits the final climb, a category 2 mountain top finish. The climb is called Mount Nightingale, and at the top is a complex of ancient ruins, including "Meryem Ana Evi", a pilgrimage site for Muslims and Catholics who believe this was the last living place of the Virgin Mary. More relevant for cyclists though is that this Turkish Madonna del Ghisallo tops a 4km climb with an ever rising gradient, from 7% at 3km to go to 10% at the finish line. This climb is sure to decide the overal standings.

The pilgrimage site at the top of the final climb. It's a good thing Markel Irizar isn't starting this race!

Stage 5: Selcuk - Izmir, 166km, flat finish

Another stage with a few hills but a flat finish line. Taking us back to a standard abandoned two stages ago, the stage finishes along the coast. The 2nd cat climb at the rear end of a stage is a bit tougher than the one at stage three, but it's also further away from the finish line. There is potential for teams to work here to drop the fastest of the sprinters, but there's still a high likeliness of a substantial group finishing together.



Stage 6: Istanbul - Istanbul, 143.7km, uphill sprint
The final stage is a prestige stage for Istanbul. In 2016 it was honoured with the first stage if the race, this year with the final stage, and it looks like an interesting stage. It's got a rather flat run in to the finish, with a small 4th category climb on the Asian part of Istanbul. After 54.6 km, the riders take another Beauties of Turkey sprint as they cross over the Bosporus from Asia into Europe. The kicker is in the final of the race: a short, 7% ramp at 1.5km from the line. Last year this ramp allowed for a solo victory for Niemiec, with 11 seconds on his first competitor and 16 on the first group of chasers. If the GC is very close here, there might be a dramatic finish on this day.



Teams & Riders
As is known, the field of riders is not what is expected from a WT race. Only four World Tour teams will show up, along with eight pro-continental squads and a Turkish national selection. ProCyclingStats has got a duo of nifty options: total team strength at a particular race and relative team strength as a percentage of the maximum a team could have sent. It's no surprise that the WT squads have sent relatively 'weak' teams while topping the list in absolute strength regardless. Three of the continental teams, Wilier-Triestina, Gazprom and Caja Rural have brought in relatively strong squads: no surprise as Wilier and Caja Rural will no doubt seek to recreate the success they had in this race last year around.

Astana Pro Team start with a team that's a fraction of what it could deliver, but there's strong names in it nevertheless. Jesper Hansen represents Denmark's hope for this race, while Andrey Zeyts might be the most suitable leader for Astana.

BORA-hansgrohe is sure to leave a mark on this race, even if not going for the GC. Having not finished any race since Milano-Torino last year, it's unlikely that Leopold Konig will find himself back in this race. Sam Bennet is sure to dominate the sprints, with the likes of Shane Archbold and Schwarzmann in his train. Bennet's form is high after winning the Sparkassen Giro and has had a great summer picking up stages and points jerseys in Croatia and Czechia.


Trek-Segafredo have brought a surprisingly well-rounded team, considering. Edward Theuns will be able to contend the sprints, and he's able to get over hills a bit better than Sam Bennet is, which puts him into the hot seat for stage 5 or even the final stage. I'm looking forward to Jarlinson Pantano on Mount Nightingale. Koen de Kort, who isn't starting this race, told a story after the Tour de France about Pantano and Markel Irizar: The very devout Pantano wanted to bless the team with holy water from Lourdes, while staunch atheïst Irizar wanted nothing to do with it: who knows what climbing up towards a pilgrimage site might do for Pantano's fervour!

UAE Team Emirates is the world tour team that has seemingly spent most effort on sending a decent team. In the aforementioned PCS-statistics, they are ranked the strongest team by far, and theirs is the favourite of the race: Diego Ulissi.  He sealed the Italian Ciclismo Cup, and placed top 10 in three Italian autumn classics these past few weeks. Before that, he won the Grand Prix Montreal. The fact that there's only one mountain top finish should work in his favour. He has got Darwin Atapuma in support, who could even strike out for himself on stage four.

Androni - Sidermec - Bottechia and Bardiani-CSF have both brought fully Italian teams to the race. For Androni the most notable rider is Francesco Gavazzi, who has been building up form throughout the Autumn classics, while Bardiani brings some more recognisable names in Barbin, Albanese and Simion.

Caja Rural are the defending champions, placing 1st and 2nd in last years edition. Last year's winner won't be here, but Caja Rural have built a competent squad around runner-up David Arroyo. With the support of Reis, Prades and Rubio the team will surely try to thwart the World Tour squads during this World Tour race.

Martinez after finishing 7th among top climbers in Milano Torino
Gazprom-Rusvelo and Wilier-Triestina have brought out quite the guns for this race. Gazprom's whole list is filled with former WT riders of the likes of Ivan Rovney, Pavel Brutt and Nikolay Trusov. Their most prominent riders are the two Sergey's Firsanov and Lagutin, while statistically Alexander Porsev should be among the better sprinters in the field. Wilier-Triestina is a team that really caught my attention here, as their young talent Daniel Felipe Martinez has shown great form these past few classics and strikes me as the type of rider who could just accidentally win the whole race on stage three. Venezuelan Yonder Godoy and Belarussian Ilia Koshevoy have gotten a small cult following on twitter, and I hope they'll perform well.

CCC-Sprandi, WB Veranclassics and Brazilian outfit Funvic fill out the peloton. CCC have send a surprisingly meager team, while Funvic have send the best they could, which to be fair, isn't too much. Jordi Simón is their most notable rider, who's only UCI-ranked race this year was the Volta Catalunya.

Last on the list is the Turkish National Selection, who at least top the list of most previous participations, with their individual riders having finished this race a combined total of 19 times. Ahmet Örken, the Turkish national TT-champion who'll ride for Israel Cycling Academy next year is their most prominent rider, while Ahmet Akdilek is the rider with the most individual previous starts, having finished the race 5 times.



The verdict:

Diego Ulissi is the top favourite for the overall, while Bennett and Theuns will dig it out in the sprints.
★★★★★ Diego Ulissi
★★★★ David Arroyo, Jarlinson Pantano, Daniel Martinez
★★★ Darwin Atapuma, Sergey Lagutin

Bergen: Women's Road Race Preview

September 21, 2017


Contents:
Recap
The Course
The Teams
Race Prediction
Favourites

Did you enjoy these past few days? I sure did! The World Championships are in full swing now, and the past fews days have been thrilling. The Netherlands have walked away with three elite gold medals -three and a half, depending on who you ask- and each and every one of them was very exciting. Here's a quick recap of how it happened:

Recap:
Team Time Trials 
Team Sunweb took the double in the TTT's, kick starting an enormously successfull championships to crown their already successful year. On Sunday morning, the women's trade teams started on the course. With only 9 teams starting, the clear favourites were Boels and Canyon-Sram, both former champions. It seemed Cervelo-Bigla and Sunweb were destined to fight for the bronze, while recently renamed Team Virtu was the dark horse, with two former individual champions, so they warranted a good look. Unfortunately the team lost Amber Neben to a mechanical early on, while Linda Villumsen was too strong for her team and accidentally dropped her teammates on Salmon Hill. Ellen van Dijk, who was part of the winning Boels squad for years, put her engine to the service of her new team, Sunweb, and pulled her team all the way to the finishing line in a winning time.

Team Sunweb getting turning onto the cobbled section near the Floibanen (cable-car) station in Bergen city-centre

In the men's field, there was another 'dark horse' contender to watch. In fact, there had been so much attention on this dark horse, that Team Sky started the race as almost a favourite. A team of strong riders who almost all combined climbing, cobble stone ánd time trial skills, they were a team with high hopes. Young Owain Doull dropped first, which was expected, but when Geraint Thomas had to drop on Salmon Hill unexpectedly, Sky's hopes were dashed rather quickly, especially when Gianni Moscon's big engine had trouble holding on. It seemed like eternal contenders BMC and Quickstep were going to dig it out for the win, but Sunweb went home with the price, with one of the youngest teams in the field.

Women's Time Trial
I did a preview of the time trial here, and I'm glad to say I wasn't too far off. With the favourites spread out evenly across the starting list, this was a race that was tense and exciting all the way through. Although I've never felt so sure of a prediction as I have when predicting Van Vleuten's win, for a long time it looked like it would be a close race: it had started raining, and until the third split Van Vleuten had been behind and losing time on Van der Breggen. I was glad to see Katrin Garfoot complete the podium. She's had a stellar start to her season but then had to deal with a lot of sickness. The podium was a delightful double-double: a double the Dutch, who got Gold and Silver, and a double for Orica-SCOTT who came home with their first ever rainbow jersey and a bronze medal in addition! Shout-out to Sarah Connolly (@PWCycling) for commenting the race and delighting us with a lot of backstory on the riders!

Men's Time Trial
Unlike the Women's Time Trial, the Men's TT had almost all of the favourites in the last group of starters. It finished on Mount Floyen, the heaviest of the climbs we'll see this championship, and mountain time trialists were expected to carry the day. A late spell of rain threatened to change the day's script, but in the end the day's favourite won -by a mile-. He almost caught his scripted challenger, Chris Froome, in what was a huge ride. Dumoulin did not take the announced bike change, but Slovenian Primoz Roglic did, which resulted in him climbing up the hill in record time and conquering the silver medal.

Course:
All road races take place on the same circuit: although the men will start with a 40 kilometre course before the circuit, all the action is likely to take place in the 19.1 kilometre criss-crossing Bergen. There's a categorised hill on this circuit, Salmon Hill, although it's the weakest of the three named hills we get this championship: the Women's TT took the Birkelundsbakken, which clocked in at an average of 7.2% over 1.4 km, while the Men's TT finished on Mount Floyen, which had an average gradient of 9% over almost three and a half km. The road race however will take Salmon Hill, which was also part of the team time trials.

Salmon Hill, a path going up Mount Ulriken, is a one and a half kilometre hill with an average gradient of 6.4%. Compared to the other two hills this sounds a lot smaller, but during the TTT it showed looks can deceive, and a lot of teams were torn apart on this biter. The first part is the steepest, at almost 8%, but looking at the video's of the TTT, the top bend has got a good final kick to it. On the way to Salmon hill, the riders already have to deal with some gradients: two bergs of 5% colour the route at the 2km and 4km mark respectively. After Salmon hill, it's still nine kilometre to the finish line, most of it a lot flatter than the first 10km: by no means does this guarantee a bunched finish though: not only will the peloton have too many strong teams invested in making this race hard, but although lacking real height differences, these final 10km are never completely flat and dotted with cobbled sections, for example near the lower Floibanen cable-car station. It was in this part that Team Sky's Gianni Moscon struggled very hard during the TTT. The main challenge is in the repetition: although the climb probably won't be enough to grant an attacking climber a solo victory -although, you never know - the fact that the peloton will take it 8 times is likely to cause trouble for the sprint specialists.

Thomas Pidcock on a cobbled section

Contenders
As all World Championship races apart from the TTT go, the race is ridden by national teams. For readability, I've sorted the nations I want to discuss here in three categories based on the strategy I expect from them: likely to work for a sprint finish, likely to work for a selective, hard race and teams that could make it work either way.

Sprinter's teams:

-Denmark and Finland
These Scandinavian nations boast two of the strongest sprinters in the field. Finland's Lotta Lepistö was one of the sprint sensations of 2016, placing 2nd on La Course and 3rd on the World Championships in the flat route of Qatar. This year she's had a tremendous spring, winning Gent-Wevelgem and Dwars door Vlaanderen, two Belgian spring classics. Although she went head-to-head with other sprinters there, these two races show she's more than able to digest a few bergs. Repeating this feature in last month's Crescent Vargarda shows that's she still in form this late in season.

Denmark's Amelie Dideriksen is the reigning world champion and world class sprinter. Her most recent victories are in early spring, though she managed to sprint to a 5th place from the peloton in the European Championships, after Marianne Vos had escaped to take the win. Denmark has got a strong team to support Dideriksen, with the likes of Cecile Uttrup Ludwig and young super talent Pernille Mathiesen in her support, the last of these being Denmarks best hope if the race doesn't end in an sprint.




-Belgium
Belgium arrives to the scene with Jolien D'Hoore as their clear leader. This sprinter's season is dotted with victories throughout the year, including stages at the Women's Tour of Britain and the Giro Rosa. Last month she won the Madrid Challenge, which is La Vuelta's equivalent of the traditional La Course. D'Hoore has got a strong team with her, with rouleurs as Ann-Sophie Duyck and Lotte Kopecky in her service, but I think Salmon hill might be just too much for her.

Puncher teams:

-The Netherlands
The largest squad of the race, with 8 riders, is stocked with talent. Both silver and gold medallists in the time trial are Dutch and are top favourites for the road race again, provided a mass sprint can be avoided. Annemiek van Vleuten en Anna van der Breggen have both had great successes in gruelling stage ánd one-day races. Van der Breggen won the triple crown of the Ardennes week, while Van Vleuten won the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race and top 5-ed in all three Ardennes classics. Although Van der Breggen is more successful in one-day races, arriving solo in many of her wins, Van Vleuten was a classics rider before the discovered the huge climbing talent she displayed this year, and might just be able to push out a stronger sprint if she arrives with a small group. In the recent Boels Ladies Tour, the two arrived as a duo at the finishing line of the 5th stage, leaving all other contenders far behind. Van der Breggen took the win there while Van Vleuten secured her GC. I can almost see the two replicating this and tuesday's feat for the road race. It would do the team an injustice if we didn't mention the rest of the team: With Blaak, Brand, Van Dijk, Pietersen and Ensink, each rider of the team is a powerhouse. We can expect a ruthless tactic of never ceasing attacks from all these riders, before the two team leaders attack, each functioning as the other's foil. Road captain is the indomitable Marianne Vos, women's cycling's living legend, capable of attacks and sprints both. Kirsten Wild, the Dutch best sprinter, is only on the reserve list, so if the race ends up a bunch sprint despite the Dutch's best efforts, we might just see Vos in the rainbow jersey once more.

-Australia
Controversy surrounded the selection for this nation's worlds squad: the Australian women have performed well all around the year, and were rewarded with seven spots. However, in a shocking decision that was no doubt motivated by a blatantly sexist disregard for the sport, Australian Cycling chose to send only five riders. Sprinter Chloe Hosking challenged the decision and won a spot on the team for herself and rouleur Neylan. Nevertheless, I expect the Australian squad to stick to the same tactic they would've committed to with their original selection: one of opportunism and attacks. Although lacking the breadth of the Dutch team, the Australians have several talented options. Kartin Garfoot won the bronze in the time trial, but I think Amanda Spratt has got an even bigger chance. The two dominated the Australian pre-season, placing first and second in races with a sort-of-similar parcours to this championships, such as their own national championships and stages in the Santos Tour Down Under.  Balancing a very powerful sprint with the ability to survive a selective race is Gracy Elvin.

Gracie Elvin at the recent Boels Ladies Tour


-South Africa
Asleigh Moolman-Pasio is a great athlete who fights for women's cycling both on and off the bike. She's here without a team to support her, which is fine, as she needs a decimated field to stand a chance at winning here. She's had a great season, riding top 10's in the classics and winning the Emakumeen XXX. Bira and recently the Giro Toscana. In the Emakumeen Bira she won the final stage, with a finish somewhat similar to the world's: a hill of roughly 5% at 10k from the finish. The repetition of Salmon hill throughout the course can only serve to tire out her opponents.

-France
Although she's been through some hard times, Pauline Ferrand Prevot is never to be discounted. She's been showing signs of regaining form and has claimed that she's regained joy in the sport. If she manages to reach the finish with a small group of favourites, she can outsprint them all.

Teams that can go either way:

-United States and United Kingdom
Both these countries are blessed with great sprinters and great punchers. With Coryn Rivera, the US has got arguably the most exciting sprinter of the season. She's won the Tour of Flanders and the Prudential Ride, and she's got it in her to survive a hard race. On the other hand, the team has got Megan Guarnier, a strong GC rider whose form has been picking up all through the season. Across the ocean, the British have got Hanna Barnes who has outsprinted Marianne Vos on home soil this year, but they've also got Lizzie Deignan. If her 2017 seasons looks underwhelming, that's only because the controversial puncher has had such successful seasons before. Of these two nations, I think the US will tend to favour a sprint-focused approach with Rivera, although they won't mind dropping some of the competition, while the UK will have Deignan as their primary contender.

-Italy
With Georgia Bronzini and Elisa Longo-Borghini the Italians have got the ability to go both tactics. Bronzini might not be the strongest sprinter in the field, but she's got a great lead-out in the person of Elena Cecchini, who's capable of sprinting for a good placing for herself too if push comes to shove.  Elisa Longo Borghini is a force to be reckoned with, who won this year's Strade Bianchi and finished second in the Giro.

Will Hannah Barnes, Georgia Bronzini and Coryn Rivera play second fiddle to their team's punchers?


Predictions

Now, for the hardest part: to predict what actually will happen. I'll admit that there's more teams here who will want to race for a sprint than I initially thought. However, the teams that will try to avoid  a bunch sprint , such as the Dutch, the Australians and possibly the Italians and Americans have more strength and depth. Only Denmark will commit fully to bringing about the bunch sprint, again possibly with American support. I think it's likely that the race will mimic the early season classics, with a significantly reduced bunch before the final two laps, and a top 10 combining sprinters and punchers in unexpected order. I think some sprinters will definitely make it into that bunch. From that moment on, their will be no end to the Dutch attacks. If they're still there, South Africa's Moolman and Australia's Spratt will surely try to attack in the last lap, as will Longo Borghini.  My guess is that Annemiek van Vleuten will tag along with one of these attacks, and conquer the double rainbow with Rivera winning the bronze from the bunch seconds later.

1. Annemiek van Vleuten
2. Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio
3. Coryn Rivera

Stars:
***** Annemiek van Vleuten, Coryn Rivera, Anna van der Breggen
**** Lizzie Deignan, Lotta Lepistö, Megan Guarnier
*** Amanda Spratt, Ashleigh Moolman, Marianne Vos, Amelie Dideriksen, Georgia Bronzini, Hannah Barnes
** Chloe Hosking, Katrin Garfoot, Jolien D'Hoore, Elisa Longo-Borgini, Gracy Elvin

2017

Boels Ladies Tour: Six days of Women's World Tour

August 27, 2017


In a few days time, the Boels Ladies Tour will launch in Wageningen, the Netherlands. The Boels Ladies Tour, also known as the Holland Ladies Tour, is the second-to-last event on the Women's World Tour calendar and the last stage race. It's also the longest stage race behind the Giro Rosa, so it's a prestigious event. As the startlist is released today, let's take the time to look at what we can expect from this race.

Content:
Stage 1 - Wageningen (Prologue)
Stage 2 - Eibergen -Arnhem (Medium hills, flat finish)
Stage 3 - Roosendaal (Individual Time Trial)
Stage 4 - Gennep - Weert (Flat)
Stage 5 - Stamproy - Vaals (Hills)
Stage 6 - Sittard-Sittard (Medium hills, flat finish)
Riders to watch
Favourites


Stage 1: Prologue in Wageningen / 4.3km / Tuesday 29th of August
The BLT starts with a short, fast 4.3km prologue. The first kilometre is a slight false-flat rise, but the rest of the short parcours is flat. There's two long straight stretches, with the last km being the most technical part of the parcours. The final 500m feature two sharp corners, in the narrow streets of Wageningen. The streets are not cobbled, but they're still made from bricks. Apart from the well known TT cannons, we might see outsiders like Anette Edmondson or Ann Sophie Duyk attempt to take this stage. I don't think the time differences will be enormous, but we could just see some favourites crash out.


Stage 2: Eibergen - Arnhem / 132.8km / Wednesday 30th of August
The first stage in line takes us from the rural east of the Netherlands to the hilly Veluwe. The Veluwe is the hilliest part of the Netherlands outside of Amstel Gold Race area. The most notable climb in the area is the Posbank, which featured in the recent Veenendaal-Veenendaal Classic and was a KOM point in the 2016 Giro. Unfortunately, after a first half which is flat apart from a 2nd category hill, the  route takes an unexpected turn northwards, skirting around the Veluwe instead of taking the Posbank or Emma Pyramid climbs. Instead, the climbing starts 20km later, with a final lap including the 2nd KOM on a climb within the city of Arnhem proper. My guess is that this is why they don't do the more impressive climbs on the Veluwe: the Arnhem local government sponsors the polkadot jersey, so they will want the first jersey to be won within their jurisdiction. 

The height difference on this final lap isn't too extreme, but it is likely to be selective enough to reduce the bunch, making a reduced sprint or even a sprint between favourites the most likely outcome. The final kilometres should be too flat for a solo victory. Chloe Hoskins is probably the fastest sprinter in the bunch, but I'd wager a bet on a reduced sprint with Gracy Elvin taking the surprise victory.


Stage 3 - Individual Time Trial Roosendaal / 18.1 km / Thursday 31st of August
Another individual time trial, this time as flat as possible. Two highway crossings look like they could make the course a bit more technical, but they should not cause to much trouble. The final corners are on quite wide roads, so likewise should not be decisive. A day for the big engines and real experts to make a difference. This will be one for the TT specialists and GC hopefuls. I think it will be very hard to get past Ellen van Dijk and Annemiek van Vleuten.

Stage 4: Gennep - Weert / 121.4 km / Friday 1st of September
This is a stage for the pure sprinters, there's no getting around it. Although this stage is in the same province as the Amstel Gold Race, this end of the province is notably flatter, and this is the only stage in line without KOM points. The parcours that's lapped has got some sharp corners, but the last 700 meters are a straight line, allowing a lightning fast run-in. Although Boels has favourites for every stage so far, they will certainly try to press their mark here if they don't have a stage victory yet, and Ameli Dideriksen is just the one to do it. Doing especially well in sprints during stage races is Hannah Barnes.


Stage 5: Stamproy - Vaals / 141.8 km / Saturday 2nd of September
I've been teasing you with AGR references, but here we are: smack in the middle of the bergs of Limburg. With a finish circuit in Vaals, this is the hilliest of all the stages, and this stage just screams GC ALERT. The race organisation counts 10 climbs, two of which they classified with KOM points. The KOM's in stage 2 were worth 3 points for the first to cross, the KOM's in stage 5 and 6 are considered heavier, so its conquerors are rewarded with 5 points. The race ends with two laps around Vaals and and Vijlen, taking the Groenenweg KOM twice. The last noted climb is at 10 km from the finish, but the climbing is not done yet, as a bump of 4.5% in the last 2.5 km to go is sure to break up the last of the favourites still together. Van Dijk will be trying to stay with the favourites here, but it will be Van der Breggen and Van Vleuten who will grapple here, with Deignan and Spratt acting as foils for their Dutch captains. Eliza Longo Borgini stands an outsiders chance here.


Stage 6: Sittard - Sittard / 159.7 km / Sunday 3rd of September
Although not with the same heights and gradients as the previous stage, the final stage of the Boels Ladies Tour is a bumpy one. It's also the longest stage of the week, potentially still allowing for those with the freshest legs to upset the classification. Officially, it's got six KOM's of the same classification as the last stage, making it potentially very lucrative to get into the break. The stage ends in the Tom Dumoulin Bike Park, with a rather flat final 9 km. This is rather similar to the 5th stage of the recent BinckBank Tour, where Lars Boom showed that a sprint wasn't inevitable, but there's one crucial difference: the artificially built cycling training parcours showcases different types of terrain, and the finish for this stage is built at a very short mur with a 10% gradient. The mur being only several meters long should nevertheless prove for an interesting uphill sprint.


Riders to Watch
Today, the startlist has been published, and even though it's still liable to changes, we can make some observations. The first is that the field is of enormous quality. There's top-level sprinters, climbers and classic's riders in this race. Cervelo Bigla of sprinter Lotta Lepistö is a notable absentee, and Coryn Rivera's Team Sunweb has other goals, so she is another top sprinter who we will have to miss.

Defending champion Chantal Blaak will be at the start again, but she will be teammates with the indomitable Anna van der Breggen and Lizzie Deignan, both of whom will take precedence in the team's pecking order. Last year, Blaak won mostly thanks to her team's outstanding team time trial. With no such TTT in this year's edition, I think there's little chance for Blaak to repeat her 2016 result. Her two captains however are among the favourites: Van der Breggen has had a stellar season, winning the Giro Rosa and topping the World Tour Ranking, while Deignan likewise performed outstandingly in the classics and today won the GP Plouay. Although Van der Breggen looks to be slightly over her season's peak, I still rank her as the main favourite between the two, because her time trial skills will give her an useful boost in a race with two ITT's. In addition, with Amelie Dideriksen the Boels-Dolmans team has got one of the favourites for the sprint stages and with Majerus and Pieters, both break-away pro's, it's hard to see this team not dominating their sponsor's home race.

Wiggle High5's Edmondson and Fahlin are both outsiders for the prologue, while Eliza Longo-Borghini will content the general classification. She peaked early in the season, taking the Strade Bianchi, and it's questionable whether she will be able to built a second peak for this race, especially considering the course might not be selective enough for her to really shine.

One rider hoping to exploit the two time trials to the fullest will be Ellen van Dijk. This diesel engine is a real powerhouse in herself, and with a second place last year, she's one of the favourites for this year. The Team Sunweb rider will try to combine time trial skills with late attacks to built her GC position. Canyon Sram is a team bulking with sprinters, such as the formidable Hannah Barnes and Elena Ceccini, but it's Lisa Brennauer who can combine respectable placings in mass sprints with time trial prowess, which helped her secure the overall on the LOTTO Thuringen Ladies Tour last July. Although Drops cycling does not start this race, Ann Sophie Duyk starts with the Belgian National Selection, and is another outsider for the time trials.

If there's one team to challenge Boels' dominance, it's Orica-SCOTT. They won't be controlling the peloton like Boels, but they will play a high level tactical game trying to create chaos with their two captains, Amanda Spratt and Annemiek van Vleuten. The two came in 5th and 3rd respectively in the Giro Rosa, and should be able to repeat a similar high classification for both of them. Afterwards, Van Vleuten completely dominated the La Course by le TdF. First, she blasted up the gruelling Izoard mountain stage before consolidating her win in a chase-style TT-effort. Although she hasn't raced since this event, Annemiek van Vleuten has a killer time trial, as she sports the Dutch tricolore.

Lastly, a super talent who hasn't shown her fullest this season is Katarzyna Niewiadoma. The Polish rider will leave Marianne Vos' WM3 team at the end of this season, and could definitely prove herself once more before starting at her new team. Linda Villumsen, the New Zealand rider from Danish descent, is a former time trial world champion, but has had a very rough year, riding only 17 race days and excelling in none. Will this be the race she returns to form?


The Favourites:
Sprinters:
*** Chloe Hoskins
** Amelie Dideriksen, Hannah Barnes
* Kirsten Wild, Elena Ceccini, Gracy Elvin

Time trial:
*** Ellen van Dijk, Lisa Brennauer
** Annemiek van Vleuten
*Annette Edmonson, Emilia Fahlin, Ann Sophie Duyk, Linda Villumsen

Overal classification:
***Anna Van der Breggen, Annemiek van Vleuten
** Ellen van Dijk, Lizzie Deignan, Lisa Brennauer
*Katarzina Niewiadoma, Amanda Spratt, Eliza Longo Borgini


Maps and profiles courtesy of the Boels Ladies Tour technical guide. Images courtesy of Gettys Images (Amstel Gold Race Ladies) and team Sunweb (Ronde van Drenthe)

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